APPLING GREY FORECASTING METHOD TO FORECAST THE PORTFOLIO’S RATE OF RETURN IN STOCK MARKET OF IRAN
►Ali Mohammadi and Sara Zeinodin Zade
Stock market is one of the most important investment market, which influenced by many factors, therefore it needs a robust and accurate forecasting. In this study ,grey model used as a forecasting method and examined if it is the most reliable forecasting method in comparison of time series method. The information of portfolio’s rate of return is gathered from 50 accepted companies in Tehran stock market, which were announced as the best companies last year. Mean Square of the errors (MSE) is computed by different value of α in grey model which could be varied between .1 to .9 ,to examined if α=.5 is the best value that our model could take .Then the predictive ability of the model is compared with different type of time series based forecasting methods Experimental results confirm forecasting accuracy of grey model. Tracking signal is computed for grey model to see whether grey model forecasting is in control or not. At the last portfolio’s rate of return is forecasted for next periods.
Keywords: Grey model, Stock market, Forecasting, time series
ATTAINMENT OF HIGHER ENROLLMENT RATES IN PAKISTAN: A MACROECONOMIC AND ECONOMETRIC STUDY
►Furrukh Bashir, Shahbaz Nawaz, Rahat Ullah, Muhammad Ramzan Arshad, Munwar Bagum, Muhammad Asif Sandila and Jawad Raza
Education is always considered as the major determinant for the development of any economy. Enrollment at various levels also shows that how much education is common within the citizens of the country. Considering the importance of enrollment, the current study examines the influence of some macroeconomic variables on various levels i.e. primary, secondary, higher, college, professional and university enrollment in Pakistan. Time series data has been gathered on consumer price index, government revenue, employed labor force, government expenditure, and health expenditure for the period from 1972 to 2010. For long run estimates, Johansen Co integration test is used and short run estimates are taken through error correction model. The results of the study exhibit positive association of employed labor force, government expenditure and health expenditure with primary, secondary, higher, college, professional and university enrollment in Pakistan. On the other side, consumer price index and government revenue have been found to be inversely influencing enrollment at various levels. Short run results are also much favorable for the economy and reveals convergence towards long run equilibrium due to any disturbances in the short run period. At the end study gives some policy implications that government should decrease consumer price index and tax rate and to increase government expenditure in terms of education and health for higher enrollment rates in Pakistan.
Keywords: Enrollment, Pakistan, Government Expenditure, Consumer Price Index, Employed Labor Force, Government Revenue.
The story of structural adjustment programme in nigeria from the perspective of the organized labour
►Nwagbara, eucharia nwabugo
The process of achieving the set objectives of structural adjustment programme (SAP) produced adverse social effects that put to question the sincerity of purpose of the SAP policy designers and implementers. To be able to generate conclusions concerning how the politics of enhancing the “well-being” of the people via SAP played out in the Nigerian society, in terms of how well the programme served the intended purpose, questions have to be asked, and responses elicited. Earlier attempts at appraising the SAP were geared toward examining the successes or failures of the adjusting countries in implementing the policies. Such appraisal gave rise to concern on the issue of good governance as a necessary and inevitable prerequisite of effective economic reform. At the same time, not much effort was made at ascertaining the social fallouts of the entire reform process. Even when the outburst of public outcry within the adjusting countries necessitated the recognition of the importance of the social dimension of SAP, little effort was made at understanding the problem from the perspective of the aggrieved populace. What we see is a proliferation of World Bank sponsored studies on the issue that hardly take cognizance of the people’s feelings. Thus the findings of such studies cannot be said to be representative of the views of all the stakeholders. This paper attempts to fill this gap by examining organized labour’s/interest groups’ response to SAP from the lens of the public sector workers and why they reacted the way they did toward the entire process. A sample of 357 respondents was randomly selected from university teachers, students and other public servants within Calabar metropolis. The findings, which were described in simple percentages, show significant relationship between economic hardship, repressive attitude of government, political uncertainty and interest groups’ protests against SAP. The author recommends the provision of adequate safety nets whenever stringent policies are to be introduced so as to cushion the adverse effect on the people; utilization of the collective bargaining tool by the parties in industrial relations as well as the implementation of SAP with ‘a human face’, among others.
Keywords: structural adjustment programme, organized labour/interest groups, protests, conditionality.
THE ROLE OF WORKER'S MULTIPLE INTELLIGENCES ON THEIR PRODUCTIVITY IN CULTURAL INSTITUTIONS OF MOGHAN
►Qader Vazifeh Damirchi, Gholamreza Rahimi and Hossein Seyyedi
The main focus of this study is Cultural Institutions of Moghan region in Iran. The theory of multiple intelligences was developed in 1983 by Howard Gardner. He suggests that the traditional notion of intelligence, based on I.Q. testing, is far too limited. Instead, Dr. Gardner proposes eight different intelligences to account for a broader range of human potential in children and adults. These intelligences are linguistic intelligence, logical intelligence, spatial intelligence, bodily intelligence, musical intelligence, interpersonal intelligence, intrapersonal intelligence and Naturalist intelligence. The purpose of this research is surveying of relationship between multiple intelligences and productivity of Cultural Institutions workers in Moghan. The methodology of study is descriptive and analytical study. Data collection instrument was a questionnaire that its reliability was confirmed by Crohn Bach’s alpha and library studies. The results show that, there is a relationship between multiple intelligences and productivity of Cultural Institutions workers in Moghan.
Keywords: multiple intelligences, productivity, Cultural Institutions, Moghan
INCOME PATTERNS AND DETERMINANTS OF RURAL POVERTY IN TWO DISTRICTS OF SINDH.
►Nanik Ram and Altaf Hussain Ansari
This research explores income patterns and determinants of rural poverty in Sindh province. The Data were collected from 300 households from two districts i.e. Khairpur, and Thatta of Sindh Pakistan by using the simple random technique; a structural questionnaire was design as an instrument tool for measuring the poverty determinants and income patterns. The households are classified into three groups i.e. A, B and C. Group A and B are below subsistence holding and group C is related to subsistence holding and, all the households were engaged in farm production . It was revealed that the average size of farm A group is 7.2 acres but the grower cultivates average area 4.5 acres and the remaining 2.7 acres are not cultivated by them due to deficiency of water. In the same way, the grower of group B cultivates 7.475 acres instead of 11.5 acres and grower of C group cultivates 16.56 acres in place of 27.6 acres. The surveyed data of district Khairpur describes that the average size of farm of group A is 7.47 acres but each grower average cultivates 4.78 acres and the remaining 2.69 acres are uncultivated. Similarly, the grower of B group cultivates 7.462 acres instead of 11.9 acres and the grower of C group brings 17.4 acres under cultivation in place of 29 acres. The surveyed data of both districts clearly indicate that the income of all growers is low because they do not bring all land under cultivation. The surveyed data has further pointed out that 50% households are below the official poverty line, 33.33% households are just above poverty line and 16.67% well above official poverty line. The group C is in a better position to provide health, education etc facilities to their family members.
Keywords: Poverty, Sindh, Income Patterns
A STUDY ON THE SUCCESSION MODEL OF FAMILY BUSINESSS
►Hung-Jung Chang and Szu-Ju Lin
Family business has to face issues such as ownership issue, governance structure issue and succession issue, etc. in enterprise development history. Among them, the succession issue is an important transition point in enterprise’s survival and development. It is thus thought of as one of the most important strategic and decision making issues in the enterprise. This article aims at investigating the succession model of Family business. First, reviews are done on the meaning of Family business. Next, reviews and comments are made on the related models of the succession of Family business. It can be seen from the research that the ways of succession of Family business can be divided into process point of view and psychological point of view. Finally, main conclusions of this article are summarized and perspectives are also made on the future researches.
Keywords: Family business, Succession
THE ESTIMATION OF THE AUTOMOTIVE FUEL DEMAND IN IRAN: ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM APPROACH
►Mohsen Mehrara and Saeedeh Ahmadi
This paper analyzes the demand for fuels in Iran automotive sector, using the Almost Ideal Demand System to estimate price and income elasticities for all the available fuels in the automotive sector: gasoline, automotive gas oil and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). These estimates can be very useful in predicting the overall impacts of price policies designed to reduce fuel consumption and to address concerns of carbon emissions or energy security. Empirical results indicate all own-price elasticities are negative and significant at 5% level. The own-price elasticity for gas oil, gasoline and LPG were estimated by about -0.22, -1.01 and -3.58, respectively. The findings also show that gasoline and gas oil are normal goods and LPG being an inferior good.
Keywords: Automotive fuel, Almost Ideal Demand System, Elasticity
ETHICAL ISSUES IN PRIVATE COMMERCIAL BANKS IN PAKISTAN
►Nanik Ram, Immamuddin Khoso, Muhammad Bachal Jamali and Faiz.M.Shaikh
This research addressed the ethical issues in Private Commercial Banks in Pakistan. Data were collected from 500 respondents/Customers from cross sectional data by using simple random technique and data were analyses by using SPSS-18 version. A structural questionnaire was used as basic tool for data collection, analysis, validity and reliability. It was revealed that private commercial banks are not caring for the customers specially, four old Banks UBL, HBL, MCB, ABL. It was further concluded that most of the staff members who interact with the customers is non MBAs so that’s why their attitude towards the customers are not friendly.
Keywords: Ethical, Issues, Private Commercial Banks
A STUDY OF JOB SATISFACTION AMONG NON PHD FACULTY IN UNIVERSITIES
►Riaz Ahmed Mangi, Hassan Jawad Soomro, Ikhtiar Ali Ghumro, Asad Raza Abidi and Amanat Ali Jalbani
This study was conducted to comprehend the overall job satisfaction of non-PhD faculty in universities of Sindh. The study was based on (Herzberg’s, 1959) two factors, motivator (Advancement, Recognition) and Hygiene (Interpersonal, Policies, Compensation) of job satisfaction. A well-structured questionnaire based on (Castillo & Cano, 2004) job satisfaction index was applied to obtain required data from non-PhD faculty members of universities. 125 non PhD faculty members from various universities at a response rate of 83% participated in the survey. The 81% data was reliable for the analysis. The frequencies and cross tabs were calculated from the data. The majority of the respondents was male, graduate, below 30 years of age, married and had job experience of more than 5 years. The factor analysis was applied to find out the underlying variance among the variables. The analysis has found five new components of the job satisfaction. The results showed that overall job satisfaction among the non-PhD faculty members of universities was very low. The motivator and job satisfaction components have significant impact on the overall job satisfaction of the non-PhD faculty. Considering the results, the management of the universities is recommended to focus on the job motivators (Advancement, Recognition) hygiene (Interpersonal/Administration relationship, Policies, Compensation) of the non-PhD faculty for the improvement of job satisfaction and performance. The researchers and scholars may conduct further studies on the factors identified through factor analysis.
Keywords: Job Satisfaction, Motivators, Hygiene, Non PhD Faculty, Universities
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SERVICES IN SMALLER ORGANISATIONS: THEY DO JUST HAPPEN
The aim of this study is to investigate how new services are actually developed in real life in small companies. Although conventional models of service development emphasise the importance of formal and structured processes, it is unclear whether most service development really is conducted in this way, and whether these formal models might merely represent theoretical structures that have been retrospectively imposed on the actual process. In particular, it is unclear whether the conventional view of formal and structured processes is applicable to smaller organisations with fewer employees. The present study therefore presents the findings from in-depth case studies of service development in eleven small Swedish companies. The study concludes that that it is difficult to identify any clear intention to pursue formal development processes in the companies studied here. Rather, service development could generally be described as ‘unstructured’ in all phases (planning, development, and market launch). Moreover, these phases overlap and impinge on one another in a flexible, unstructured, and informal manner. The study examines and explains the reasons for this generally unstructured approach to service development in smaller firms.
Keywords: New Service Development, Small Companies, Entrepreneurship
EFFECTS OF LEADERSHIP STYLE ON ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE: A SURVEY OF SELECTED SMALL SCALE ENTERPRISES IN IKOSI-KETU COUNCIL DEVELOPMENT AREA OF LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA
►Obiwuru Timothy C., Okwu, Andy T., Akpa, Victoria O. and Nwankwere, Idowu A.
This study has investigated the effects of leadership style on organizational performance in small scale enterprises. The major objective was to determine effect of leadership styles on performance in small scale enterprises. Transformational and transactional leadership styles were considered in this study. Transformational leadership behaviours and performance/outcome considered relevant in the study were charisma, inspirational motivation and intellectual stimulation/individual consideration; and effectiveness, extra effort and satisfaction, respectively. Transactional leadership bahaviours and performance/outcome variables were constructive/contingent reward and corrective/management by exception; and effort, productivity and loyalty/commitment, respectively. The study followed a survey design, and employed evaluative quantitative analysis method. Analysis was based on primary data generated through a structured Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ) administered on respondents. Responses to research statements were scaled and converted to quantitative data via code manual developed for the study to enable segmentation of the data responses into dependent and independent variables based on leadership behaviours and associated performance variables. OLS multiple regression models were specified, estimated and evaluated. The result showed that while transactional leadership style had significant positive effect on performance, transformational leadership style had positive but insignificant effect on performance. The study concluded that transactional leadership style was more appropriate in inducing performance in small scale enterprises than transformational leadership style and, therefore, recommended transactional leadership style for the small enterprises with inbuilt strategies for transition to transformational leadership style as the enterprises developed, grew and matured.
Keywords: Leadership style, Effects, Performance, Small Scale Enterprise
HISTORICAL AND IMPLIED VOLATILITY: AN INVESTIGATION INTO NSE NIFTY FUTURES AND OPTIONS
►N R Parasuraman and P.Janaki Ramudu
The broad objective of the paper is to have an understanding of the movement of volatility over a fair period in respect of the market portfolio. Also, it enables an understanding on how divergent the implied volatility has been from this estimate. It uses Volatility Cone, Volatility Smile and Volatility Surface as the parameters. The study takes different rolling periods percentiles of volatility. Hoadley Options Calculator is used for calculation and analysis purpose. The study empirically proves that there is a clear reversion to the mean as indicated by the volatility cone. The study of volatility smiles in respect of NIFTY options throws up different patterns. The Garch (1.1) model reveals that historical volatility for the period from 2004 to 2004 and for the year 2009 were estimated. Interestingly, but not totally surprisingly, the average implied volatility of calls and puts on Nifty during the period January to March 2010 showed differences.
Keywords: volatility cone, volatility smile, hoadley options calculator, nifty options
INVESTIGATING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND PRODUCER PRICE INDEX AND DIVIDEND PER SHARE
►Mohammadjavad Sheikh, Mohsen Nazem Bokaei, Hadi Alijani, Mohammad Saadatmand, Sayed Mojtaba Hosseini Fard and Ismaeil Chezani Sharahi
Managers of economic institutions should possess some criteria in the stock exchange so that they can evaluate their performance and economic plans. Criteria for performance evaluation accounting can be used for evaluating performance and economic plans. One of the main criteria for performance evaluation accounting is reported accounting profit or dividends. This criterion is one of the main indexes for evaluating managers’ performance, and it is also a main criterion for decision-making on approval or rejection of economic plans. This index is influenced by different factors such as price index, especially consumer price index and producer price index. In this paper, relationship between producer price index and consumer price index is investigated in accepted firms in Tehran stock exchange. Dicky- Fuller Test is used for time series reliability and Pearson correlation coefficient and Granger-causality tests are used for investigating the relationship between variables. Finally, it was concluded that consumer price index has an inverse correlation with dividend per share (first hypothesis), and producer price index has a direct correlation with dividend per share (second hypothesis).
Keywords: dividend per share, consumer price index, producer price index, Dicky- Fuller Test, Granger-causality test
WTO REFORMS AND RICE MARKET IN PAKISTAN
►Muhammad Bachal Jamali, Tariq Mehmood, Syed Abir Hussain Naqvi, Muhammad Aamir Hashmi and Faiz.M.Shaikh
This research investigates the WTO reforms and Rice market in Pakistan. Data were collected from the Primary as well secondary sources of the Rice producing countries, and data were analysis by using SPSS-18 version, A structural questionnaire was developed for reliability and validity of the data. It was revealed that from the last five years there is no visible impact on export laid growth but from last three years price shocks was observed in Pakistan, due to increases in the world rice market by 200 percent in various Asian countries. Consumers are facing the price shock problem in Pakistan and world Rice market the statistical results were similar for the alternative specification of gross margins and prices as the economic decision available. However, the price elasticities derived using the gross margins specification were about a third of those using the prices specification. The gross margin specification yielded additional information in the form of yield and input cost elasticities. The analysis indicates that there are lags which are due primarily to the difficulties and cost of rapid adjustment rather than to the time required to revise expectations. The statistical results were similar for the alternative specification of gross margins and prices as the economic decision available. However, the price elasticities derived using the gross margins additional information in the form of yield and input cost elasticities
Keywords: Supply, Response, Rice, Growers.
LEADERSHIP BEHAVIORAL TAXONOMIES IN UNIVERSITIES
►Riaz Ahmed Mangi, Asad Raza Abidi, Hasan Jawad Soomro, Ikhtiar Ali Ghumro and Amanat Ali Jalbani
The study was intended to recognize and replicate the Yukl’s (1989-2004) behavioral taxonomies in the university settings in Sindh. A comprehensive questionnaire based on the items in taxonomies was developed, face validity of the questionnaire was test and found suitable. A total of 90 university Deans and head of Departments were randomly selected from public and private universities of Sindh. Categorical reliability of the data was checked and found highly reliable. The majority of the respondents were male, post graduate, above 50 years of age, married and had more than 15 years of experience. The statistical analysis describes the typical Sindhi culture among the respondents. A large number of university leadership focused on the relation as compared to task and change at the universities. This research also supports partial replication of three dimensions i.e., Relation, Task and Change as Yukl’s behavioral taxonomies with first order factor analysis. Relation factor was replicated completely, while other two were replicated in two different facets each i.e., Change was replicated in two facets – Improvement and Process and Task was also replicated in two facets – Improvement and Process. Making a second order factor analysis assured these two factors were replicated completely.
Keywords: Behavioral taxonomies, Relations, Task, Change, Leadership, Universities
STUDYING THE EFFECT OF BRAND LOYALTY ON CUSTOMER SERVICE IN KERMAN ASIA INSURANCE COMPANY
►Gholamreza Jandaghi, Razieh Nafari Mehranjani, Mahdi Nik Seresht and Ali Mokhles
Despite of remarkable interests in the nature and role of marketing application from servicing perspective, there are limited researches on service branding. By describing four major aspects of service branding, present study studies these aspects and their impacts on service conceived quality and finally it investigates the impact of service conceived quality on customer loyalty. Represented model includes the impact of brand traditional image along with other three impacts, that is, company image, employees’ confidence and company’s confidence. By using a 104-subject sample of Asia Insurance Company’s customers, the analyses show that brand image and company’s image have direct and positive impact on service conceived quality while a significant relationship is not seen between company’ confidence and employees’ confidence with service quality. Finally, the aspects of service brand impacts indirectly on customers’ loyalty via impacting on service conceived quality.
Keywords: service brand, brand image, company’s image, employees’ confidence, company’s confidence, service quality, customer’s loyalt